Poker Hand Probabilities

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In the standard game of poker, each player gets5 cards and places a bet, hoping his cards are 'better'than the other players' hands.

The game is played with a pack containing 52 cards in 4 suits, consisting of:

13 hearts:
13 diamonds
13 clubs:
13 spades:

♥ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A
♦ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A
♣ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A
♠ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A

The number of different possible poker hands is found by counting the number of ways that 5 cards can be selected from 52 cards, where the order is not important. It is a combination, so we use `C_r^n`.

The number of possible poker hands

Poker Hand Probabilities

`=C_5^52=(52!)/(5!xx47!)=2,598,960`.

Royal Flush

Calculating Poker Odds for Dummies - A FREE, #1 guide to mastering odds. How to quickly count outs to judge the value & chance of winning a hand in 2021. Because of this, one can use probability by outcomes to compute the probabilities of each classification of poker hand. The binomial coefficient can be used to calculate certain combinations of cards. Then, the counting principles of rule of sum and rule of product can be used to compute the frequency of each poker hand classification. Then, the probability of each poker hand classification is simply its. The chances of getting a top starting hand (of double aces, picture pairs or A-K. There are a few 6-card poker games so it is worth looking at probabilities for winning with certain kinds of hands. One chooses the highest ranked 5-card poker hand among the 6 cards and values the hand based on the 5-card hand. The types of 5-card poker hands in decreasing rank are straight flush 4-of-a-kind full house flush straight 3-of-a-kind. The tables below show the probabilities of being dealt various poker hands with different wild card specifications. Each Poker hand consists of selecting the 5 best cards from a random 7 card deal.

The best hand (because of the low probability that it will occur) is the royal flush, which consists of 10, J, Q, K, A of the same suit. There are only 4 ways of getting such a hand (because there are 4 suits), so the probability of being dealt a royal flush is

`4/(2,598,960)=0.000 001 539`

Straight Flush

The next most valuable type of hand is a straight flush, which is 5 cards in order, all of the same suit.

For example, 2♣, 3♣, 4♣, 5♣, 6♣ is a straight flush.

For each suit there are 10 such straights (the one starting with Ace, the one starting with 2, the one starting with 3, ... through to the one starting at 10) and there are 4 suits, so there are 40 possible straight flushes.

The probability of being dealt a straight flush is

`40/(2,598,960)=0.000 015 39`

[Note: There is some overlap here since the straight flush starting at 10 is the same as the royal flush. So strictly there are 36 straight flushes (4 × 9) if we don't count the royal flush. The probability of getting a straight flush then is 36/2,598,960 = 0.00001385.]

The table below lists the number ofpossible ways that different types of hands can arise and theirprobability of occurrence.

Ranking, Frequency and Probability of Poker Hands

HandNo. of WaysProbabilityDescription
Royal Flush

4

0.000002

Ten, J, Q, K, A of one suit.
Straight Flush

36

0.000015

A straight is 5 cards in order.
(Excludes royal and straight flushes.)
An example of a straight flush is: 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, all spades.
Four of a Kind

624

0.000240

Example: 4 kings and any other card.
Full House

3,744

0.001441

3 cards of one denominator and 2 cards of another. For example, 3 aces and 2 kings is a full house.
Flush

5,108

0.001965

All 5 cards are from the same suit.
(Excludes royal and straight flushes)
For example, 2, 4, 5, 9, J (all hearts) is a flush.
Straight

10,200

0.003925

The 5 cards are in order.
(Excludes royal flush and straight flush)
For example, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 (any suit) is a straight.
Three of a Kind

54,912

0.021129

Example: A hand with 3 aces, one J and one Q.
Two Pairs

123,552

0.047539

Example: 3, 3, Q, Q, 5
One Pair

1,098,240

0.422569

Example: 10, 10, 4, 6, K
Nothing

1,302,540

0.501177

Example: 3, 6, 8, 9, K (at least two different suits)

Question

The probability for a full house is given above as 0.001441. Where does this come from?

Answer

Poker Hand Odds Calculator

Explanation 1:

Probability of 3 cards having the same denomination: `4/52 xx 3/51 xx 2/50 xx 13 = 1/425`.

(There are 13 ways we can get 3 of a kind).

The probability that the next 2 cards are a pair: `4/49 xx 3/48 xx 12 = 3/49`

(There are 12 ways we can get a pair, once we have already got our 3 of a kind).

Poker Odds Chart

The number of ways of getting a particular sequence of 5 cards where there are 3 of one kind and 2 of another kind is:

`(5!)/(3!xx2!)=10`

So the probability of a full house is

`1/425 xx 3/49 xx 10 ` `= 6/(4,165)` `=0.001 440 6`

Explanation 2:

Number of ways of getting a full house:

`(C(13,1)xxC(4,3))` `xx(C(12,1)xxC(4,2))`

Poker

`=(13!)/(1!xx12!)` `xx(4!)/(3!xx1!)` `xx(12!)/(1!xx11!)` `xx(4!)/(2!xx2!)`

`=3744`

Number of possible poker hands

`=C(52,5)` `=(52!)/(47!xx5!)` `=2,598,960`

Poker Hand Probabilities

So the probability of a full house is given by:

`P('full house')`

Poker Hand Probability Texas Holdem

`='ways of getting full house'/'possible poker hands'`

Poker Hand Probabilities Calculator

`= (3,744)/(2,598,960)`

Poker Hand Probabilities Math

`=0.001 441`