Vegas Odds Nfl Rushing Leader 2019
Can you name the rushing leader for every season of the NFL in the Super Bowl era? Sam Greenwood/Getty Images. 2019 / TEN / 1,540 / #22. The NFL source for news, analysis, stats, scores, and rumors.
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by Liev Jackson
Interesting Choices in NFL Rushing Touchdown Race
Todd Gurley (+1200) has led the NFL in rushing touchdowns for each of the last two seasons. He’s the first repeat champ since Marshawn Lynch co-led in both 2013 and 2014. But given the way he ended off last year, nursing a mysterious hip injury and supplanted by CJ Anderson, it seems like a longshot to pick him for a three-peat.
It’s not that I don’t think the Rams offense won’t be explosive yet again, it’s simply that I expect Gurley’s usage rates to come down somewhat.
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Ezekiel Elliott (+800) and Saquon Barkley (+800) are co-favorites atop the list even though the former had just six touchdowns in 2018 and the latter finished fifth overall with 11.
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Barkley however makes a lot more sense given the lack of other options in the Giants offensive arsenal and he is entering his second season. His rookie season saw him produce 1307 rushing yards and a 5.0 average per rush, so that speaks to his tremendous potential.
Elliott is holding out and starting year one with Kellen Moore as the offensive coordinator. It’s hard to get a read on what kind of season he’ll have as the team transitions to a more modern style of attack.
James Conner (+1800) finished third last season with 12 touchdowns in his first year as the primary back in Pittsburgh’s offense. He’s also just 23 years old, so it would seem there’s a lot of potential here as well and he’s getting great odds.
Surprisingly, Alvin Kamara (+1400) is tied for fifth best odds, in spite finishing second last year and tearing up the league in his first two seasons with the Saints. Drew Brees’ passing numbers were way down last season (32 touchdowns) on a team that is often near the top in scoring, and I see no reason why that trend would change now that he’s 40.
Looking for a longer shot, I can’t help but love Le’Veon Bell (+2000) in his first season with the Jets. Both he and Jets head coach Adam Gase have a lot to prove in year one with their new team and Bell figures to be featured somewhere between often and a ton on and given Sunday.
The Picks:
- Kamara +1400
- Barkley +800
- Long Shot: Bell +2000
Here are the Odds for the Top Contenders:
NFL Season Props
2019-2020 Most Regular Season Rushing Touchdowns
Ezekiel Elliott+800
Saquon Barkley+800
Todd Gurley+1200
Derrick Henry +1200
Nick Chubb +1400
James Conner+1800
Alvin Kamara+1400
Le'Veon Bell +2000
Marlon Mack +2000
Christian McCaffrey +2000
Melvin Gordon +2000
Sony Michel +2200
Darrell Henderson +2500
Joe Mixon +2500
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At the risk of dating myself, I can recall a time when the NFL’s annual rushing-yards title generated some actual buzz.
Quick, can you name last season’s rushing leader?
Kudos to those who named the Dallas Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliott, but surely a good number had him on their fantasy teams.
In any case, there’s real reason to care about the 2019 NFL rushing leader (outside of the fantasy football realm) as a number of sportsbooks have posted futures odds on that very proposition.
But before we look ahead, it’s worthwhile to take a quick look back. Here are the league’s leading rushers from the last five seasons:
2018: Elliott (1,434 yards)2017: Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs (1,327)2016: Elliott (1,631)2015: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings (1,485)2014: DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys (1,845)Going back a few seasons further, we find that seven of the last eight season rushing leaders were bell-cow backs (garnering at least two-thirds of their team’s rushing attempts) playing on teams who ranked in the top 10 of percentage of rushing plays.
Something to bear in mind as we zero in on some best bets and longshots worth a look on the FanDuel Sportsbook board:
2019 NFL Rushing Leader – Best bets
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants (+360)
In his sensational NFL debut a year ago, Barkley was the rushing runner-up, finishing 127 yards behind Elliott. He did so, though, on 43 fewer carries and averaged 0.3 yards more per attempt. Now with WR Odell Beckham Jr. gone to the Cleveland Browns, the G-Men may rely on Barkley even more.
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Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals (+1200)
I debated between two backs with the same odds here in Mixon and the Seahawks’ Chris Carson here, but went with the former due to the looming presence of 2018 first-round pick Rashaad Penny in Seattle.
Mixon averaged 4.9 yards per attempt and 83.4 yards per game in finishing fourth with 1,168 total rushing yards a year ago and could be in for even more work with new head coach Zac Taylor coming over from the run-heavy Los Angeles Rams.
Le’Veon Bell, New York Jets (+1600)
Bell had a year off during his ballyhooed holdout in Pittsburgh last season, but averaged 1,307 yards per season during his last three full campaigns and finished in the top five in rushing each season. He’s still in his prime at age 27, and the Jets will likely look to take full advantage of their new, high-paid back and take the pressure off second-year QB Sam Darnold.
2019 NFL Rushing Leader – Longshots
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans (+3200)
Henry had 585 of his 1,059 rushing yards over the final four games in 2018, and the Titans very well could continue to ride the wave with an uncertain passing game.
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Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons (+3400)
Certainly health is concern with Freeman, who played in only two games a year ago, but he averaged 1,000 yards per season over his last three full campaigns and this will be his first season since 2014 without long-time running mate Tevin Coleman sharing the load.
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Josh Jacobs, Oakland Raiders (+5000)
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The Raiders made the Alabama product the first running back drafted this spring and could look to ride the rookie from the get-go with Marshawn Lynch no longer in the picture.